Newport Bucket: Bucket Rating Rule

The Bucket uses a velocity prediction program (VPP) to help with the ratings.  The VPP uses fundamental science to analyze the basic performance characteristics of the boats and predict boat speeds.

The VPP is invaluable to the Bucket Rule for three reasons:

1. The Bucket ratings vary with wind speed and course content.  This allows us to customize start times to how hard the wind is blowing and to various degrees to which the boats will be sailing upwind, downwind or reaching.
2. We can generate a reasonable estimate of the speed potential of a yacht we have never seen.  This provides an initial or introductory set of ratings to be used for that first race.
3. We can very easily change the ratings for differences in sail inventory, and other boat configuration changes.  This occurs in a rational, scientific process without guesswork.  We have had occasions where a boat may have torn all their spinnakers, or can no longer use their largest headsail.  The rule is nimble and flexible in dealing with this.

The more races we run, the more yachts we handicap, the stronger our system becomes.   To keep the system simple and “user friendly” we keep the inputs to the rule to a minimum.  Most of the yachts were designed for luxury cruising.  Inherent to that are compromises to racing performance.  The more chances we have to observe specific boats, and types of boats, the more we understand those compromises.  The VPP is then really the “connective tissue” that correlates all that we observe and permits us to develop a model of boat performance over a variety of conditions.  In essence, we calibrate the VPP formulas with what we see on the race course.  This synergy of science and observation creates a very powerful handicapping tool. 

The Bucket Rule uses declarations provided by the boats for the major factors that determine performance.  This is supplemented with on-line information, design data from designers and we even peruse the luxury boat magazines.  In truth, boat captains don’t always know the exact design details that we find useful for speed prediction.  As stated earlier, we want to make it easy to get a rating and get on the starting line.  The extra information is very useful in creating accurate VPP models and providing close racing.  We can also intuit some of the design data by watching races.  If a well-designed boat that does very well in medium winds struggles upwind in 20 knots, then we might conclude she is a bit shy of stability.  We can then adjust her VPP stability directly without corrupting the light air predictions.

The philosophy of the bucket rule is to share the wealth yet not reward bad sailing.  We are not running a golf handicap system.  In the case of near identical boats they will likely have similar ratings.  However, no two boats are exactly.  The qualities of the sails and inventories are different.  The deck layouts or rigs might be set up differently in ways that effect sail handling.  All of that is fair justification to apply rating differences.  At the same time we are not going to give sweetheart ratings to boats that are poorly sailed.

Sandbagging does not pay under the Bucket Rule.  Although poor finish results might imply that the boat has design compromises discussed earlier, we do not simply take elapsed times and derive the next day’s start times.  The adjustments we make to ratings are implemented gradually.  A boat would need to have consistently bad results before she received rating help.  By then the regatta would be long over.  The strength of the Bucket Rule is that the more you race, the better we know you, the greater the variety of course types and wind strengths you race in, the better we know you.  Once we know you, we can give you a start time that will likely result in you approaching the finish line in a tight pack of boats all fighting to cross first.